The Theory of Probability in Sports Betting Explained

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The theory of probability in sports betting explained pie graph

Anyone who has placed a bet on a sport, be it rugby, football, or any other sport, knows that 100% accurately predicting the outcome of a match is not possible.

The best one can do is make a guess, and hope that the guess is correct. There are, however, a number of things that can be looked at in order to help make an educated guess, as apposed to a random guess. Placing a bet on a rugby game goes well beyond simply flipping a coin and selecting one team or the other, after all.

A person who is familiar with the game will, therefore, make an infinitely better choice when predicting a winner, as apposed to a person who knows nothing about rugby.

An interesting thing to take into consideration, especially when dealing with things like online betting NZ sports betting, is the theory of probability. For those who are not aware, the theory of probability is the study of random events, using mathematical formula.

For example, if a coin toss was indeed 100% random, it would be impossible to see patterns developing, if that coin was flipped hundreds of times. However, patterns do begin to emerge. How is this possible? Isn’t a coin toss a simple 50/50 event?

Influencing Factors on The Theory of Probability

In the case of a coin toss, there are factors that may sway the coin, pushing it more towards landing on heads or tails. The coin has many imperfections, such as grooves, and even the design of the coin itself, which shape its journey through the air.

These imperfections, when interacting with air, can indeed result in the coin more commonly landing on one side, as apposed to the other. Even how the coin is flipped may be an influencing actor, or how humid the temperature is.

Yes, the influence will be so small that a person flipping the coin a dozen times will hardly notice. But, study the coin toss over hundreds of hours, and a pattern begins to emerge.

If using this data, analysing it, and applying it, the theory of probability makes guessing heads or tales somewhat easier.

The Theory of Probability In Sports

Making a quick guess on one team, or the other, is all good and well. Its fun, entertaining, and a good way to perhaps make a few extra dollars.

But, if a bet maker were to apply the theory of probability to the match, taking into account the team’s performance, the field being used, the strength of the players, the weather, and many other factors, would the prediction be more accurate?

The short answer is; it would, to a degree. The long answer is; an unexpected injury could render much of the analysis meaningless, in one fell swoop.

Ultimately, taking into account influencing factors in a sports game is an excellent idea, and recommended to bet makers. At the end of the day, however, 100% accurate predictions are 100% impossible.

Getting more predictions correct than incorrect is all a person can hope for, and something to strive towards. Good luck to all the bet makers out there.