Betting On the Contrarian Method

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If you’re wondering what we are talking about, we mean betting against the public. That’s betting against whichever side the public is backing, or opting for the contrary option. The name contrarian betting is easy to understand when you consider that it refers to betting on the contrary of public opinion.

The premise behind this system is that the public may be easily influenced by the media, and in a way even brainwashed by what they read and see, and that often, public perception is incorrect. If you bet against public opinion you could be taking the smart way out, as you may have a different perspective- and a winning one at that.

Perception Versus Reality

The most obvious reason that contrarian betting makes sense and works consistently over time comes down to the fact that, if the public was always right, then sportsbooks would go out of business pretty fast. As it is, sportsbooks tend to set their lines in a way that lets them get equal action on either side, and sometimes, they might just make one side look too good to be true. When the public pounds a side that’s been popular and it loses, the sportsbook comes out smiling.

A great example of how this system works is to look at the public’s obsession with betting on favourites and overs, especially in the case of correlated parlays. Most betting enthusiasts initially get in to wagering because they enjoy backing their team and making money from their passion, and for the average fan, having their team as a favourite is always incentive to put money down.

Armed with this knowledge, sportsbooks can shade lines gins the favourite with both overs with totals wagering and point spreads, safe in the knowledge that many bettor will simply blindly opt for these options. Often the very popular picks will move the line by as much as a half point or more, giving even more value to those who go against them.

Why Fading the Public Is Profitable

If you look at the numbers it is easy to see why contrarian betting has become a smart move for many savvy bettors, and why it is as enjoyable as real money blackjack.

Taking the NFL for example, in 8 seasons in games that the public favoured a side 75% of the time, that favoured side lost approximately 53% of the time. This means that anyone who bet on those who were not the favourites walked away a winner.

Bear in mind that this type of betting is not the same as betting on the underdog. In this case it is simply betting against public opinion, as 2 teams may be very evenly matched.

Betting on the underdog is a whole different endeavour and involves backing a team that doesn’t look likely of winning at all, due to past performances or simply being the weaker side.

While no betting system lasts forever, the contrarian one won’t either, as if too many people start doing it, a new ‘favourite’ will arise But for now the stats show it can reap big rewards.